Pitches, Balls and Reserves – Where the Ashes Will Be Decided

Two days to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|